The Event

"Winning would be the greatest thing I’ve ever achieved. At the Olympics, I’m sure most people believed that if I had a bad day I would still finish third or fourth. Here we don’t know.”

“I’ve gone straight in at the deep end, but that’s what champions do.”

- Mo Farah accurately describing what he’s attempting to do on Sunday. The 3:28 1500 runner is taking on the world’s best over 42.2 km in a race that seems like a real-life version of fantasy track and field

What to expect:
It would be easy to say the answer is somewhere in all the links below - but as we know it doesn't matter how many words are written, or many "grey cells" are lost in analysis of the race, the marathon more than most events, is capable of producing a result no one thought of! 
First and foremost MoFa is a racer in the mould of the younger Ovett - not interested in records, but prepared to race you, and whatever you threw at him. Unfortunately, in terms of finding out what he is capable of, no one has chosen to really "stick it to him" in a championship 5k. or 10k. The man undoubtedly is very talented, and has real speed - I do not doubt that he could beat the World Records for 2k., 3k. and 5k. but I am by no means confident he can beat the 10k. record. Both Smiley Haile and KB set multiple records at 5k and 10k. and had a greater volume of miles in their legs, before attempting their first marathons; and of course did not set World Records in their debuts - it took SH a couple of years and a few races to get there. And of course there have been many talented athletes who have run fast half marathons and not made the transition to the full distance - and in this professional era it hasn't mattered much, because they can still make a very nice living thank you! Everything changes physiologically after 60-70 minutes effort.
A big part of the puzzle that is missing, for both race preparation and prediction, is the 20 mile race - the great Belgrave 20 mile races of the 60s, 70s, and into the 80s were great predictors of marathon performance, as was the Inter-County 20 miles.
What part, if any, has MoFa's fall and subsequent "collapse", played in his preparation (physical and mental) - I would suggest very little physically - he has previously shown a tendency to react badly in very cold weather, and that is unlikely to be an issue Sunday - I do think that how easily Mutai handled him ( the fall not withstanding) may play on his mind.
Public statements have consistently been "my aim is to break the British Record" rather than win, and the statement "I always enter a race attempting to win" was probably read a little out of context as being a change to his basic plan to get through the race. We have also been told the plan is to back off the lead group and aim for 62' 15" at the halfway, and come back with a negative split - how much faster can someone go in the second half when their best for the distance is over 60'?
We are told Smiley Haile's pace making will continue to 30k.  (still about 2k. short of 20 miles), and as we know that is really the point at which the race starts (to quote one of the commentators at the Paris race "this is 6 miles longer than any sensible race should be" - needless to say an "ex-sprinter"!). If there are still 4-6 runners with him, I think 2, or even 3 of them, could break the World record, but I do not think MoFa will be one of them, and I think Geoffrey Mutai would win in that scenario. Should the pace back off after SM's duties finish I believe Kiprotich can win, as of course could MoFa if he's still in the mix.
If he runs under 2h 5' I think the move up can be considered a success, but is he is significantly slower (2h 6'+) he needs to put off the experiment for a while.

Renato Canova Prediction (this link should go directly to it, but you may need to scroll down):
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5735714&page=1#5735936

A Prediction:
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2014/04/2014-london-marathon-mens-preview-breaking-race-ages/


'LetsRun' London 2014 Special:
http://www.letsrun.com/events/2014-london-marathon/

All the video interviews you could possibly want!
https://www.youtube.com/user/LondonMarathonTV/videos


Race Previews:
http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2014/apr/11/mo-farah-expected-win-london-marathon

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/apr/11/london-marathon-haile-gebrselassie-guide

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/apr/09/mo-farah-london-marathon

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2014/apr/08/mo-farah-collapse-new-york-london-marathon-kipsang

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/video/2014/apr/08/mo-farah-london-marathon-video

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/athletics/26996558

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/athletics/26963298

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/athletics/26968962

http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/athletics/26946697

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/athletics/london-marathon/10760631/London-Marathon-2014-Mo-Farah-says-victory-on-Sunday-would-be-his-greatest-achievement.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/athletics/london-marathon/10761336/London-Marathon-2014-Mo-Farah-looks-ready-to-step-up-for-a-test-against-the-best.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/athletics/london-marathon/10758916/Mo-Farah-will-break-my-29-year-old-British-record-in-London-Marathon-says-Steve-Jones.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/athletics/london-marathon/10756131/Mo-Farah-to-run-in-slower-group-in-London-Marathon.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/athletics/london-marathon/10752969/Mo-Farah-raring-to-go-for-Sundays-London-Marathon.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/athletics/london-marathon/10753333/London-Marathon-2014-Mo-Farah-is-setting-his-sights-on-victory-and-a-British-record-on-his-debut-over-26.2-miles.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/othersports/athletics/10750404/Long-distance-great-Kenenisa-Bekele-looks-forward-to-taking-his-rivalry-with-Mo-Farah-on-the-road.html